Brokerages dial down US recession forecasts amid tariff optimism
May 16, 2025 .
- Admin
May 16 (Reuters) - Some of the major brokerages have revised downward their U.S. recession forecasts after a temporary tariff truce between the U.S. and China eased global trade tensions and sparked a rally in riskier assets this week.
Goldman Sachs, the first major brokerage to make this adjustment, lowered its recession probability from 45% to 35%. Barclays has dismissed recession risks altogether, while J.P. Morgan now estimates the likelihood of a recession to be below 50%.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab year-end target to 6,100 from 5,900.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
| Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
| UBS Global Research | 5300 | 3.80% | 1.23 | 130 | 7.60 |
| Goldman Sachs | 6100 | 4.35% | 1.20 (next 12 months) | 135 (next 12 months) | 7 (next 12 months) |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 5800 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 5900-6100 | 4.00%-4.50% | 1.08-1.12 | 144-148 | |
| Societe Generale | 6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 |
| Deutsche Bank | 6150 | 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.10 | 145 | 7.35 |
| Nomura | 4.15% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 | |
| Morgan Stanley | 6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) |
| J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 140 (Q4'25) | 7.60 |
| BofA Global Research | 5600 | 4.25% | 1.15 | 165 | 7.30 |
| Wells Fargo | 3.96% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
| BMO Capital Markets | 6100 | ||||
| Jefferies | 5300 | 4.43% | |||
| Barclays | 5900 | 4.00% (Q4'25) | 1.06 (Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.50 (Q4'25) |
| Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
| Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.14 | 140 | 7.30 | |
| BNP Paribas | 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) | ||
| Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
| Citigroup | 5800 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 | |
| ING | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 | ||
| HSBC | 5,600 | ||||
| Evercore ISI | 6800 | ||||
| Peel Hunt | 4.20% | 1.11 (Q4'25) | |||
| RBC Capital Markets | 5550 | 4% | |||
| Oppenheimer Asset Management | 5950 |
U.S. Inflation:
| U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
| Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
| Goldman Sachs | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| J.P.Morgan | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.0% | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) |
| Barclays | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Societe Generale | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.4% | 3.6% (Q4/Q4) |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.5% | |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
| Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| BofA Global Research | 2.9% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
| Berenberg | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| BNP Paribas | 2.3% | |
| Nomura | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| ING | 2.4% | |
| Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| UBS Global Research | 3.2% | |
| Peel Hunt | 3.2% |
Real GDP Growth:
| Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
| Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
| UBS Global Research | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 6% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.3% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 6.1% |
| Barclays | 2.9% | 0.9% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 1% | 7.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 6.1% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
| Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
| Citigroup | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 6.7% |
| Nomura | 2.8% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 6.6% |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.9% | 1.7% (Q4/Q4) | 4.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 6.5% |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | |||
| Berenberg | 2.3% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.5% |
| BNP Paribas | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) | |
| Peel Hunt | 1.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% | |
| ING | 2.0% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
| Jefferies | 2.4% (Q4/Q4) |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid, Rashmi Aich, Vijay Kishore, Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shounak Dasgupta